Key finance factors shaping UK manufacturers and shippers in 2026

As the UK enters 2026, there are early signs that the export and domestic economic environments are turning a corner. And while UK consumer sentiment is likely to remain cautious in Q1, recent PMI data shows UK exports returning to growth after a year-long slump.

However, while macroeconomic pressure is easing, finance-led decisions will remain a defining influence on supply-chain resilience, cost control and competitiveness. Freight markets may be normalising currently, but with operational volatility still present, finance, procurement and logistics teams must stay closely aligned.

We highlight below critical finance factors that UK manufacturers and shippers should be actively managing in 2026.

Cost of capital, balance-sheet resilience and working capital

Even with easing inflation and expected base‑rate reductions during 2026, the effective cost of capital for UK manufacturers remains structurally higher than the pre‑2020 period. 

This has direct consequences for logistics strategy and supplier choices.

Stronger balance sheets give shippers the ability to:

• Position inventory more flexibly, including dual sourcing or buffer stock
• Commit upfront to long-term logistics capacity or warehousing
• Absorb short-term cost shocks across freight, storage or supplier disruption

By contrast, highly leveraged businesses remain more exposed to:

• Short-notice capacity premiums
• Supplier or carrier failures within extended logistics networks

Finance leaders increasingly need to assess logistics resilience not just through service KPIs, but through working‑capital intensity, cash tied up in transit and supplier dependency risk. In 2026, balance‑sheet strength directly influences supply‑chain choices and negotiating power.

Interest-rate easing and working-capital efficiency

Expected interest rate reductions in the UK during 2026 will provide some relief to manufacturers and shippers—particularly those managing inventory‑heavy or globally distributed supply chains.

However, the financial benefit will be uneven. Companies that optimise working capital will see the greatest upside, including:

• Lower financing costs on inventory and goods in transit
• Reduced costs for trade-finance instruments such as letters of credit or supply-chain finance

Manufacturers with inefficient logistics flows — excess stock, long lead times, or limited demand visibility — may see only marginal benefit from lower rates.

For finance and supply-chain teams, 2026 should be treated as a year to:

• Re-evaluate inventory and safety-stock strategies
• Renegotiate trade-finance and funding arrangements
• Align logistics lead times more closely with cash-flow objectives

Interest-rate easing should be used to structurally improve working-capital efficiency, not simply as short-term relief.

FX volatility and total landed cost

Foreign exchange remains a critical, and often under‑appreciated, risk for manufacturers and shippers.

In 2026, continued sterling volatility means FX can materially impact:

• Freight and fuel surcharges
• Contract manufacturing and supplier costs
• Total landed cost and margin predictability

A common challenge for exporters is misalignment:

• Logistics and freight costs fluctuate with FX
• Customer pricing is often fixed in GBP
• Budgeting and reporting lag real currency movements

Finance teams will need to improve collaboration with procurement and logistics functions. For manufacturers competing on tight margins, FX‑aware logistics and sourcing strategies will increasingly differentiate strong performers from those reliant on short‑term margin recovery actions

Government support and export finance

UK Export Finance continues to play a critical role in supporting exporters through guarantees, insurance and financing solutions that can unlock working capital and de-risk international trade.

The Industry and Exports (Financial Assistance) Bill aims to increase UK Export Finance’s overall budget limit from £84bn to £160bn, with no fixed limit on future increases. This expansion will significantly strengthens the UK’s ability to support exporters as global competition, geopolitical risk and supply-chain complexity persist.

For manufacturers and shippers, government-backed finance can:

• Support overseas contract wins
• Improve access to funding for growth
• Reduce balance-sheet pressure during periods of volatility

Looking ahead

Save for some notable exceptions many forecasters are predicting 2026 to be a less volatile market than 2025 with the general direction of interest rates, inflation and logistics clearer than at this stage in 2025. There is however the need, as always, for business to adapt to the new market conditions in order to thrive in 2026.

Metro is well placed to support UK manufacturers and exporters as finance and logistics decisions increasingly intersect. If you would like to discuss how these factors may affect your supply chain in 2026, please EMAIL our CFO, Laurence Burford.