Policy Shifts and Market Volatility

As the freight and logistics sector navigates a complex global landscape, the coming week marks a period of significant policy recalibration.

From fiscal reforms in the UK and US to central bank updates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the external environment is shifting and with it, the operational and strategic considerations for logistics providers worldwide.

UK Spending Review 2025: A Reset for Public Investment and Infrastructure
The UK’s 2025 Spending Review, delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on 11 June, represents a pivotal moment in the government’s fiscal strategy. It is the first multi-year review since 2021 and is being conducted under a “zero-based budgeting” approach, meaning all departmental budgets are being rebuilt from the ground up, rather than adjusted incrementally.

For the freight and logistics industry, the review carries several key implications:

• Infrastructure Investment: The government has committed to a 10-year infrastructure strategy, with capital spending plans extending to 2029–30. An additional £113 billion is earmarked for capital infrastructure over the next five years. Logistics operators should closely monitor how this funding is allocated, particularly for road, rail, and port projects, which are critical to freight efficiency and network resilience.
• Skills and Labour: A new construction skills package aims to train up to 60,000 additional workers, addressing chronic labour shortages in logistics-adjacent sectors. This may ease pressure on warehousing and construction timelines while supporting the development of new logistics hubs.
• Public Procurement and Regional Development: The review is expected to shape procurement strategies and regional investment priorities. With a renewed focus on productivity and value for money, logistics firms engaged in public contracts or operating in economically underdeveloped regions, may see new opportunities or face tighter scrutiny.
• Sustainability and Net Zero: While full details are pending, the review is likely to align with the UK’s broader decarbonisation goals. This may include funding for green transport initiatives, clean energy infrastructure, and incentives for low-emission freight solutions.

The Spending Review also comes amid a challenging economic context, shaped by inflation, global trade disruptions, and rising borrowing costs. Freight operators should prepare for a policy environment focused on efficiency, resilience, and long-term value creation.

Compounding these challenges, UK exports fell sharply in April, with a £2 billion decline in goods exports—driven primarily by new US import tariffs. This marked the largest monthly drop on record in exports to the United States and affected most categories of goods. Manufacturing output also fell, notably in the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors, as businesses scaled back production in anticipation of higher tariffs. After months of strong performance, export activity was further disrupted by firms pulling forward shipments earlier in the year to avoid newly imposed US levies.

US Tax Reform: A New Era for Trade and Investment?
In the United States, President Trump’s proposed “big, beautiful” tax bill is advancing through Congress. The legislation includes sweeping corporate tax cuts and incentives for domestic manufacturing, which could accelerate re-shoring trends and alter trade patterns. For logistics providers, this may result in:

• Increased Domestic Freight Demand: As US-based production expands, demand for domestic transport, warehousing, and last-mile services is expected to rise.
• Cross-Border Complexity: Changes to trade incentives and tariffs may shift the flow of goods between the US, Mexico, and Canada, requiring agile route planning and customs expertise.
• Capital Investment Shifts: New tax incentives may drive clients to invest in automation, fleet upgrades, or new distribution centres—creating knock-on effects across the logistics value chain.

The new tariff regime is also contributing to global trade volatility. In the UK, the economic impact of the US tariffs is already being felt, with export volumes contracting and trade-dependent sectors seeing reduced investment activity. This highlights the need for logistics providers to stay alert to evolving bilateral trade risks and respond with adaptive planning.

Central Bank Updates: Currency and Credit Market Impacts
Both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve have held key monetary policy meetings. The Fed is expected to update its economic outlook, while the BoE continues balancing inflation control with economic stability. The implications for logistics include:

• Currency Volatility: Exchange rate movements can affect international freight pricing, fuel costs, and contract margins.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: Higher borrowing costs may influence fleet financing, infrastructure investment, and client demand—particularly in capital-intensive sectors such as construction and manufacturing.

As ever, the geopolitical landscape offers little certainty for confident decision-making. In this climate, Metro can help drive your business forward by:

• Diversifying supplier and route networks to reduce exposure to geopolitical and trade risks
• Enhancing supply chain resilience and responsiveness through our advanced MVT platform

EMAIL Laurence Burford, Chief Financial Officer, today to explore how Metro can support your business through ongoing global disruption.