Europe Builds Momentum as Trans-Pacific Slowdown Deepens

Global container shipping is evolving rapidly, with Asia–Europe trade lanes showing fresh strength just as the transpacific market enters a significant slowdown. This divergence is creating new challenges and opportunities for shippers.

On the Asia–Europe route, demand has been steadily rising, with spot freight rates climbing significantly since the end of May. After a sluggish start to the year, the peak season seems to have arrived, driven by stronger consumer sentiment in Europe, improved macroeconomic indicators, and renewed retailer confidence in stock building.

Forecasts for European imports have been upgraded. Instead of the previously expected 3.5% annual growth, volumes are now set to increase by 6% through 2025. This is being supported by lower inflation, falling unemployment, rising disposable income, and stronger euro/sterling, which is making imports from Asia more affordable.

A new UK trade agreement is also giving exporters a boost by reducing U.S. tariffs on inbound goods to 10%. Discussions with the EU are ongoing, and similar tariff terms could apply more broadly to European supply chains, further stimulating demand.

In contrast, container traffic from Asia to North America is heading in the opposite direction. The sharp increase in demand earlier this year, driven by front-loading stock ahead of tariff deadlines, has left warehouses full and order volumes slowing. With inventory levels high and economic uncertainty persisting, import activity is falling, and rates have dropped since early June from Asia.

Adding to this pressure is the looming reintroduction of US tariffs. Temporary suspensions on general and China-specific tariffs are set to expire in July and August respectively. While extensions are possible, the expected imposition of new duties, potentially rising to 55% for some Chinese goods, may suppress demand further and shift sourcing decisions in the second half of the year.

Although a short-lived spike in cargo arrivals at US West Coast ports may materialise in July, driven by attempts to beat the tariff deadlines, this is expected to be a temporary reprieve in a broader downtrend.

Meanwhile, carriers on the Asia–Europe route are preparing to balance higher demand with tighter capacity. Shipping lines plan to withdraw approximately 90,000 TEU of scheduled space in August compared to July, using blank sailings and capacity cuts to maintain pricing discipline. If volumes remain strong, this could lead to a second wave of rate increases before the end of summer.

Beyond commercial dynamics, security remains a key concern in the Red Sea. A bulk carrier was attacked this week using drone boats, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms, in the first such assault since December. Analysts warn that the threat level to commercial shipping has risen significantly, with continued disruption to Suez-linked services.

As trade routes shift, tariffs tighten, and risks increase, the ability to adapt quickly and make informed shipping decisions is more critical than ever.

Metro’s sea freight team provides expert guidance to help you navigate volatile conditions, mitigate disruption, and make your supply chain more resilient. Whether you’re importing from Asia or exporting to global markets, we’ll keep your cargo moving and your costs under control.  EMAIL our managing director Andrew Smith.