Tariff Pause Triggers Surge in Ocean Freight Rates – But Legal Roadblocks Lie Ahead

Container shipping lines are driving spot rates sharply higher, with the 2025 transpacific peak season likely to begin earlier than usual, fuelled by a surge in US imports from Asia.

Spot rates on key routes are rising faster than during the pandemic-era boom. Carriers implemented general rate increases (GRIs) on 1 June and plan further hikes for mid-June and 1 July, seizing the moment while demand is high.

According to the WCI, Shanghai–Los Angeles rates surged 57% week-on-week, while Shanghai–New York climbed 39%. Since mid-April, West Coast rates are up 173%, and East Coast rates have more than doubled. For comparison, rates rose just 20% over the same period in 2021. Asia–Europe lanes are also rallying, with the Shanghai–Rotterdam index up 32% and Shanghai–Genoa rising 38%, the highest weekly increases in many months.

But this momentum may be short-lived, as a wave of new capacity is entering the market. On Asia–West Coast routes, supply will grow by 13% in June and 16% in July. This additional capacity is expected to blunt the impact of further rate hikes, and limit the length of the current rally.

At the same time, the legal outlook for Trump ‘reciprocal’ tariffs remains highly uncertain. On 29 May, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs, just one day after the US Court of International Trade ruled that the former president had exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate block. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington paused that decision to consider the government’s appeal, with final briefs due by 9 June.

However, legal experts suggest that the original court ruling is on strong footing. Under the current framework, principally the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), presidential authority to impose broad-based tariffs is limited. The Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on non-emergency, peacetime imports likely overstepped constitutional bounds.

If the appeal fails, Trump’s tariffs will face two remaining paths: either a legislative push to expand presidential tariff authority through Congress, or a ruling from the Supreme Court. The latter remains a real possibility if the administration persists and seeks to test the constitutional limits of executive trade powers.

In the meantime, the legal limbo is prompting importers to accelerate orders while the tariffs remain suspended, adding further pressure to ocean freight markets. But with front-loading already well advanced, this year’s peak season is expected to be earlier and shorter than the usual August–October window. While carriers are determined to ride the wave of high rates, fundamentals suggest the next one or two GRIs may be the last before rates begin to level off.

With legal uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and ocean freight markets under intense pressure, early planning and expert guidance are more critical than ever.

Metro’s experienced sea freight and customs brokerage teams are here to support your transpacific and Asia–Europe supply chains, with in-market expertise and local operations in the US.

Whether you’re juggling critical shipments, reviewing tariff exposure, or seeking end-to-end compliance support, Metro has the insight and capability to keep your cargo moving.

EMAIL our managing director, Andrew Smith, today to stay ahead of disruption and secure your space at the best possible rates.